Digging Your Own Grave – McCarthy Edition
As widely anticipated, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) failed to obtain the votes necessary to be elected Speaker of the House. His main obstacle are prominent members of the so-called House Freedom Caucus, who are holding out support in order to obtain more concessions which will grant them more power and influence in the 118th Congress.
While the failure to obtain the Speakership showcases the fine, thin line the GOP must walk with having a slim majority in the House (218 are needed for a majority and the GOP has 222 seats), it is also a testament to the moral principle that when you sanction evil, evil will sanction you in return (and not in the way you want).
After the January 6th Attacks (some call them a soft coup, others call it a domestic terrorist attack; I call it both), McCarthy had contemplated asking President Trump to resign. Ultimately, this did not occur and McCarthy voted to acquit Trump during his second impeachment.
Since that time and, in particular leading up to the vote yesterday, McCarthy has made many concessions to the Freedom Caucus, many of whom are apologists for these Attacks and have been defending the terrorists who made threats, both vocal and subliminal, to murder the Vice President and members of Congress.
These concessions range from guaranteeing that Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-GA) be reinstated on committees, promises to create special committees to investigate the Biden Administration, and to modify procedural rules. In short, they give the Freedom Caucus an outsized influence on the policies and direction of the House over the next two years.
McCarthy has proven over the years that he is not the “sharpest knife in the drawer” when it comes to politics. Such concessions only amplify this point. In veering right to secure the Freedom Caucus, McCarthy was anticipating that people who support terrorists would settle for less than 100% of what they want.
The Freedom Caucus, as currently composed, is not about individual liberty, but about raw power. They will not be satisfied until they extract every concession they believe they can get from McCarthy. The problem for McCarthy is that being Speaker is his dream job and he has backed himself into a situation where that job, if not out of reach, may be only short-lived and inglorious.
Consider the following outcomes on the voting which will continue today:
- The Democrats form a coalition with moderate Republicans (they only need five defectors to make this a reality) and select either one of the latter as Speaker or an old-school, Reaganite conservative as a placeholder Speaker until the next Congress. In such an event, McCarthy never becomes Speaker, will receive all the blame by his Congressional base for essentially losing complete control of the House, will likely be replaced as Majority Leader, and will be relegated to irrelevance.
- McCarthy caves to the holdouts. This result will basically put the latter in charge of the House, with the former as a puppet Speaker, who will always have to meet their demands or will end up being replaced in like manner as ex-Speaker John Boehner.
- After several more rounds of voting, the holdouts are able to pry enough defectors from McCarthy to successfully promote an alternative. The most likely candidate is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who has shown no hesitation during her career in sacrificing friendship and principles for ambition.
- McCarthy drops the Freedom Caucus and strikes a deal with moderate Democrats. This is the least likely scenario, not only because McCarthy has burned too many bridges, but also because such moderates are not likely to risk ostracism from the rest of their Party. In making a "deal with the devil," McCarthy would be seriously primaried during the next election cycle and potentially lose his entire career. However, this is still a possibility if both the holdouts and McCarthy refuse to budge and the Democrats fail to form a coalition with moderate Republicans.
“Tragic irony? Or poetic justice? You tell me.” – The Penguin
