Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

 President Joseph R. Biden (D) and the rest of the Democrats seemingly made the right call in replacing him as their Presidential Nominee with Vice President Kamala Harris (D). There is now a resurgence of energy and optimism on their part, profoundly amplified by generous and original donations, and reflected in improved poll numbers. When I wrote my last post about the State of the Race, the Democrats were at risk of inadvertently transforming safe states into battlegrounds (such as Minnesota and New Hampshire). Now mitigated, the risks are that the Republicans could lose most of the traditional swing states (including Florida, which was considered safe for them at the beginning of this election cycle). Gov. Tim Walz (DFP – MN), surprisingly, has turned into a good runningmate choice for the Harris campaign. His folksy persona has been warmly embraced by liberals and moderates alike, and progressives are very fond of his record. Likely developed by his experience as a high sc...

 With former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) set to announce her pursuit of the Presidency later this week, here are my initial projections on how the nomination battles will end. This, of course, comes with the caveat that in politics a week is a lifetime and anything can change quickly (just ask most of the candidates who were leading in the polls a month before the Iowa caucuses this century and cratered, such as Howard Dean [2004], Mitt Romney [2008], and Newt Gingrich [2012]), both politically and by force majeure ( e.g. , a candidate dying).  Republican Nomination: This is former President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) to lose – even if he is indicted over any one of the slew of crimes for which he is under investigation. There are two reasons for this conclusion:  ·         First, he is the leader of an informal cult, whose followers believe he is God’s Messiah (or “ Chosen One ”) for the United States of America. According to one report , Tru...