Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

  The many violations of individual rights and attacks against the U.S. Constitution by the second Trump administration, compounded recently by the blatant murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, have led many in “the Resistance” to question whether the time to transition from peaceful protests to violence is now justified.  It is not. Not yet. A common formal framework to structure the moral justification for revolution can be found in the words of America’s Declaration of Independence: “That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends [protecting inalienable rights], it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience h...

 The 22 nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution states the following:  “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice . . .” (emphasis added) This provision seemingly prohibits President Donald Trump from being elected to the office of President again. From selling 2028 campaign merchandise, to restructuring the White House to his personal preferences, to open mulling, to consolidating Federal power in himself, it is clear that he has every intention of staying in office past his current term. The key term (and weakness) in the 22 nd Amendment is the term “elected”. Speculation has been raised as to ways he could stay in office past 2029 without being elected. The most popular theory on the internet is to run some lackey ( e.g. , Vice President J.D. Vance [R] or Donald Trump, Jr.) as the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028 with President Trump as his runningmate. Once they are inaugurated, the lackey will promptly resign and Trump will a...

(Author’s Note: Due to health and a family emergency, I have been unable to complete as yet my planned series diagnosing the 2024 election. I still plan on finishing each part, but with political events unfolding as they are, this article is more timely.) Today, former President Donald J. Trump (R) will become current President in what will be the first coronation ceremony after the position was transformed by the U.S. Supreme Court into a pseudo-monarchy, by holding that a sitting President is practically inviolable. In 2022, Trump publicly called for the termination of the U.S. Constitution and he is well on his way in doing so. Months ago, I was asked by a relative as to how he could do this and provided her with the following short list of simultaneous political moves he would need to execute, in order to undermine the political and cultural underpinnings of American society to the point where termination would be feasible: ·        Packing the Ex...

Why did Vice President Kamala Harris (D) lose? Why did the Democrats as a whole lose the Senate and (barely) fail to reclaim the House of Representatives? There has been much “hand wringing” over these questions, as political scientists and professionals in adjacent professions dissect the election results and critique various tactical and strategic decisions by the Democrats, such as whether or not Biden should have dropped out (and whether or not such action was taken too late), whether Harris should have moved to the left instead of towards the center, whether the Democrats’ GOTV efforts were too old-fashioned, etc. More important than addressing why the Democrats lost is why the Republicans won with a standard-bearer who is a convicted felon, was twice impeached as President, has undeniable authoritarian tendencies, is a pathological liar, and a sexual predator. Within this context, it is also important to answer why such a person actually outperformed down-ballot Republican...

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday: The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September , with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change: While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead.  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harr...

 While the beginning paragraphs of the U.S. Declaration of Independence are the most quoted, it is often overlooked that our Founding Father’s listed 27 grievances against Great Britain’s King George III and outlined their reasons for declaring independence from the British Crown. Here is how these grievances stack against former President Donald J. Trump (R): He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. While “Governors” in the Declaration’s context is in reference to King George’s ministers, it can also be applicable to the Governors of the United States during both the COVID-19 Pandemic and other natural disaster situations, when President Trump pressed the issue of withholding aid to “blue” States and areas, due to the lack of popular support for him in such. Though not the same concretely, this gri...

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...

Events of the past month have turned the most boring Presidential race since 1956 into a historic one. Former President Donald J. Trump (R) was nearly assassinated and a major pressure campaign has been launched to convince President Joseph R. Biden (D), who gave the worst televised General Election Debate performance in history, to end his campaign in favor of a (hopefully) more electable replacement. Rumors are that President Biden, while recovering this weekend from Covid-19, is seriously contemplating ending his campaign. Time will tell the validity of such. Prior to these events, I believed that this election would be as close as in the year 2000, when Vice President Al Gore (D) beat Governor George W. Bush (R) in the popular vote by 0.5%, but lost the Electoral College 271 – 266 – 1. Biden was likely to win the popular vote again, but flipping a coin to guess who would win the Electoral College would have been appropriate, as everything would come down to turnout. The only diff...

This article is directed towards those who are already well aware of the dangers which former President Donald J. Trump (R) poses to the U.S. Constitution (calling for its termination ), to the Western world in general (encouraging Russia to invade it), and potentially to the existence of civilization (encouraging Russia to potentially go to war with nuclear powers, such as Great Britain and France) – yet who are also hesitant to “pull the lever” for President Joseph Biden (D) this coming November. The hesitation may stem from any number or combination of things. For some, it is ideological, as the American brand of liberalism becomes more adjacent with democratic socialism. For others, it is because some of the Biden Administration’s policy decisions have been disasters. For others, it is primitive tribalism, where members of the opposing tribe are mortal enemies and can be shown no quarter. For others, it is personal, with concerns about Biden himself – whether it be his age and h...