Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday: The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September , with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change: While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead.  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harr...

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...