Elections 2024 – Preliminary Thoughts
With former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) set to announce her pursuit of the Presidency later this week, here are my initial projections on how the nomination battles will end. This, of course, comes with the caveat that in politics a week is a lifetime and anything can change quickly (just ask most of the candidates who were leading in the polls a month before the Iowa caucuses this century and cratered, such as Howard Dean [2004], Mitt Romney [2008], and Newt Gingrich [2012]), both politically and by force majeure (e.g., a candidate dying).
Republican Nomination:
This is former President Donald Trump’s (R-FL) to lose – even if he is indicted over any one of the slew of crimes for which he is under investigation. There are two reasons for this conclusion:
· First, he is the leader of an informal cult, whose followers believe he is God’s Messiah (or “Chosen One”) for the United States of America. According to one report, Trump commands 30% of the Republican base who will never vote against him, no matter what he says or does. If calling for the Constitution to be terminated, inciting and allowing an insurrection/domestic terrorist attack against Congress, attempting to overturn election results, bragging about committing sexual assault, using illegal campaign contributions to silence mistresses, extorting foreign leaders for illegal in-kind campaign contributions, tax fraud, etc. will not change their feelings (and it is only “feelings” on which such a commitment is based, not reason), nothing will.
Having a lock on 30% of the base (and the ones most likely to vote) is commanding in a field which will likely consist of at least six high-profile candidates. This would be daunting in the Democratic’s “proportional” system (delegates awarded based on percentage of the vote won), but it is especially true in the Republicans “winner-take-all” system (first one with a plurality wins all delegates), where the smaller “anti-Trump” vote will likely be split.
As a result, Trump is likely to win at least three of the first four contests. He handedly won Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in 2016 and while there is no indication that a previous win guarantees a subsequent one (just as George H.W. Bush [1988] about his Iowa win in 1980), there are no indications at this point that the results in 2024 will be any different. If this projection turns out to be correct, he will go into Super Tuesday with a lot of momentum and cash, against an opposition who will either be beaten down by the losses or cash strapped (or both).
· Second and finally, like in 2016, Trump is already making hints that if he does not get the nomination, he will run on a separate ticket and practically give President Joseph Biden (D-DE) a re-election victory (see the 1912 Presidential Election for an example, minus the 6% showing of Socialist Eugene V. Debs). Such a threat is enough to keep any opposition within GOP leadership from strongly advocating for Trump’s defeat (such a threat was allegedly the main reason why the GOP did not strongly condemn Trump’s role in the January 6th Insurrection).
At the moment, Trump’s main opposition is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). DeSantis is able to go “toe-to-toe” with Trump in fundraising and, as the 2022-midterms showed, beat him in political proxy battles. He has won a lot of admiration from the conservative base, who love his Holy Crusade of using the government to punish anyone who disagrees with him culturally. He may be the first choice among voters who want neo-fascism without the “Orange Fuhrer.”
However, DeSantis is not charismatic and fails the proverbial “Beer Test” in politics (a test best described by the question, “Who would you rather sit and have a beer with?”). Unless he is able to fix this (a tall task, since charisma is a complicated mix between one’s one character and sense of life and it’s compatibility with the same mix within an audience – and such attributes take a lifetime to hone and polish), he will find it very difficult to connect with voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, who place a premium on actually interacting with the candidates on a personal level. While it is possible to still win the nomination without winning either of these two states (ask Bill Clinton [1992] and Joe Biden [2020]), it is extremely difficult. He is likely to go the way of former Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) in 2016, who generated a lot of buzz throughout 2015, but ultimately was not able to overcome similar issues.
As for Haley, her “flip-flopping” on Trump and her blatant opportunism (as well chronicled by Politico) will not endear her to either the Trump or anti-Trump camps (it will not be a complete “turn-off”, since today’s Republicans value power more than anything, but she is not going to have a passionate base). Like most of the non-Trump/DeSantis crowd, she is going to have to build a strange coalition in order to have a chance – and it’s not clear, at this point, that there is enough voters in a party which views Trump favorably by 80%+ to form a winning coalition.
Projection: Trump wins the nomination handedly. DeSantis will make some noise, possibly doing as well as winning the Iowa Caucuses and doing well in the South on and around Super Tuesday, but likely not to do better than this. Haley will likely drop-out of the race after a loss in South Carolina, but may do well enough to give her leverage in a quid pro quo between throwing her endorsement behind a front-runner and getting a plum Executive Branch position (or a future endorsement if she runs for Governor again or the Senate).
Democratic Nomination: Outside of a depression which is not blamed on the Republican Congress for shutting down the government, do not expect to see any real opposition to Joe Biden in 2024. While this was a buzz topic among Republicans and the media last year, the history of modern Presidential elections (1972 and onwards) shows that this is a near impossibility, even if the economy is “in the tank” (just ask Ronald Reagan [1976], Ted Kennedy and Jerry Brown [1980], and Pat Buchanan [1992]).
And for those who keep suggesting that Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will attempt a run – please, give it a rest. You have been saying the same thing every election cycle since the turn of the century. She skipped four of those six elections you said she was likely to run in, lost the other two, and she would turn 77 years old in October, 2024. She’s done.
Projection: If Biden remains healthy, he will handedly win re-nomination. He may have some token opposition like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had in 1996 and 2012, respectively, but it is unlikely there will be a serious challenger.
Bonus – Libertarian Party: While the Libertarian Party nominee is likely to be a non-office holder, there is an outside chance that, if Trump does lose the Republican nomination, he may attempt to become the Libertarian Party nominee and gain the Party’s ballot access in 45+ States. The Party was taken over by the Von Mises Caucus this past summer, who are attempting to build a coalition between anarchists and the alt-right. This is the type of base which could be supportive of Trump and would enable him to follow in the footsteps of another megalomaniac (Teddy Roosevelt).
