Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...

 President Joseph R. Biden (D) and the rest of the Democrats seemingly made the right call in replacing him as their Presidential Nominee with Vice President Kamala Harris (D). There is now a resurgence of energy and optimism on their part, profoundly amplified by generous and original donations, and reflected in improved poll numbers. When I wrote my last post about the State of the Race, the Democrats were at risk of inadvertently transforming safe states into battlegrounds (such as Minnesota and New Hampshire). Now mitigated, the risks are that the Republicans could lose most of the traditional swing states (including Florida, which was considered safe for them at the beginning of this election cycle). Gov. Tim Walz (DFP – MN), surprisingly, has turned into a good runningmate choice for the Harris campaign. His folksy persona has been warmly embraced by liberals and moderates alike, and progressives are very fond of his record. Likely developed by his experience as a high sc...