2024 Presidential Election: Prediction

 Here is my prediction:











Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown (e.g., predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952). 

Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote.

Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%.

When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip.

The most likely to flip is Georgia, which does not have any competitive Senatorial races this cycle (unlike in 2020). This, coupled with Republicans largely controlling the election apparatus, will likely cause this state to be picked up by Trump.

Based on the statewide election results in 2022, I expect Nevada will be very competitive this time and, while the Democrats are likely to prevail, this is not for certain (the Republicans picked up the State's Governorship in 2022 and almost a Senate seat). 

Arizona will also be close, but with the Democrats likely to win the Senate election and with Trump further alienating the small, but significant Mormon population, it will likely stay with the Democrats.

Wisconsin is, of course, the "mother of all coin flips" and could go either way.

While Michigan would have been a pure tossup with Biden heading the Democratic ticket, I expect the combination of Harris and Walz will be progressive enough to staunch defections to third-parties and this state will likely stay with the Democrats.

Trump has won North Carolina within the 49% range in both 2016 and 2020. He is likely to do so again, making it very difficult for Harris to beat him, especially with third-parties taking about 1% of the vote.

Pennsylvania will also be very close, as Trump consistently won within the 48% range of the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. He won the Commonwealth in 2016 by a 0.72% margin (the Green Party Nominee won 0.81%) and lost it by a 1.18% margin in 2020 (with the Green Party Nominee not being on the ballot). In 2024, the Green Party Nominee is on the ballot, so I expect any victory to be exceptionally thin. With 2016 being the anomaly, Pennsylvania is consistently a blue state, so I give the edge to Harris.

Because Trump is a well-known (and well-detested) entity now and Harris does not appear to be receiving as much of the "double-hate" as Biden, I expect that third parties will not do well this year (probably a combined 1 - 1.5% of the vote). 

Winning will entirely depend on which side turns out the most voters - which is something which cannot be predicted. If turnout from both sides is the same as 2020, I expect this to be the closest election since 2004 (with a good possibility it'll be the closest since 2000). If my prediction is correct, Harris will win the Electoral College, 287 - 251.

Popular posts from this blog

2024 Presidential Race Autopsy (Part I)

Image
Why did Vice President Kamala Harris (D) lose? Why did the Democrats as a whole lose the Senate and (barely) fail to reclaim the House of Representatives? There has been much “hand wringing” over these questions, as political scientists and professionals in adjacent professions dissect the election results and critique various tactical and strategic decisions by the Democrats, such as whether or not Biden should have dropped out (and whether or not such action was taken too late), whether Harris should have moved to the left instead of towards the center, whether the Democrats’ GOTV efforts were too old-fashioned, etc. More important than addressing why the Democrats lost is why the Republicans won with a standard-bearer who is a convicted felon, was twice impeached as President, has undeniable authoritarian tendencies, is a pathological liar, and a sexual predator. Within this context, it is also important to answer why such a person actually outperformed down-ballot Republican...
Read more

Myths About Trump: Significant Reduction in Regulations

One of my favorite myths about former President Donald Trump (R) is the notion that the Trump Administration significantly reduced Federal regulations (you can find an archive of the Trump White House bragging about this here ). The fact of the matter is that, at best, regulations were reduced by an insignificant amount; at worst, they increased under Trump. For those readers who may not know, under the Federal Government, there are three broad categories of laws: ·         Statutory Laws. These are the laws passed by Congress. ·         Administrative Laws . These are the “laws” created by administrative agencies ( e.g. , the State Department, the EPA, HUD, etc. ), ostensibly   for the purpose of carrying out statutory laws, but quite often abused to the point that agencies use broad interpretations to impose their own laws on the American people. ·         Case Law . ...
Read more

2024 Presidential Race Autopsy (Part II)

Image
The combination of the facts that almost all segments of the American public desire authoritarianism and that President Donald J. Trump (R) is giving these segments what they want by being a few steps shy of terminating the U.S. Constitution, presents a daunting challenge to those opposed to MAGAism. Despite all the warning signs of the dangers of MAGA and Trump, despite having the explicit support of some of the leading Never Trump Republican leaders, and despite record-breaking, good economic indicators, the Democratic Presidential ticket lost by a solid margin in 2024. Unlike European countries, the United States has a front-ended political system; various political factions coalesce around a broad ideology (forming a political party) prior to elections (in back-ended systems, like in Europe, the various factions form their own parties with their own ideologies, then coalesce with each other after elections in the form of governing and opposing coalitions). As is want after ever...
Read more