Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

Why did Vice President Kamala Harris (D) lose? Why did the Democrats as a whole lose the Senate and (barely) fail to reclaim the House of Representatives? There has been much “hand wringing” over these questions, as political scientists and professionals in adjacent professions dissect the election results and critique various tactical and strategic decisions by the Democrats, such as whether or not Biden should have dropped out (and whether or not such action was taken too late), whether Harris should have moved to the left instead of towards the center, whether the Democrats’ GOTV efforts were too old-fashioned, etc. More important than addressing why the Democrats lost is why the Republicans won with a standard-bearer who is a convicted felon, was twice impeached as President, has undeniable authoritarian tendencies, is a pathological liar, and a sexual predator. Within this context, it is also important to answer why such a person actually outperformed down-ballot Republican...

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday: The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September , with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change: While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead.  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harr...