Final Thoughts on the 2024 Election Cycle

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday:

The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September, with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change:

• While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead. 
  
  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harris can overcome Trump's consistent leads. However, the Senatorial race is not so indicative, since in 2020, future Senator Mark Kelly (D) outperformed President Joe Biden (D) by 44,324 votes. This was likely due to Libertarian voters splitting their votes between Kelly and their Presidential nominee, Jo Jorgensen. The same could be the case this time around, as there is again no Libertarian Senatorial candidate.

• Immigration is one of the hottest issues in the country right now and it does not get any hotter than in Arizona. The majority of Americans want tighter border security and this want, even among the various Latino communities, may be enough for independent Arizona voters to support Trump.

• Most of the intra-country immigrants in Arizona are from California and are conservative. Most left California because of their disdain over the way the State has been handled by Democrats over the past decade or so, and Harris is receiving some of the blame for this.

• While Trump left a bad taste in most Arizona Mormons mouths in 2020, it appears he has become more palatable to them over the years, despite being a sexual predator, convicted felon, and publicly calling for the termination of the U.S. Constitution (a document Mormons supposedly consider sacred). Such change is reflected in the fact that Trump has never polled as well in Utah as he has this cycle (averaging 59%). This indicates that there will likely be fewer Mormons willing to defend their Constitution than in previous cycles.

If my prediction turns out to be correct, Harris beats Trump 276 to 262, which will make it the closest Presidential election since 2000, when George W. Bush (R) defeated Al Gore (D) 271 to 266.

About that 270 . . . 

As I mentioned in previous posts, this election has more paths to a 269 tie than any in recent memory. Considering the following list of outcomes (which are not exhaustive and are listed in order of "most likely" to "least likely"):

Michigan and Pennsylvania Flip:

Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Flip:

Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania Flip:

Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Flip:

Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District Flip:

Assuming that the electors vote as pledged, a tie would mean that the new House of Representatives would have to choose among the top three candidates from the Electoral College vote (which would normally mean just Harris and Trump, but if one of the electors casts an unfaithful vote to, say, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., then the House could also consider him). The new Senate (the President of which is Vice President Harris) would also have to choose among the top two candidates from the Electoral College vote (which would be Senator J.D. Vance [R-OH] and Gov. Tim Walz [D-MN]). 

In the House, the elections in done by State delegation, rather than individual votes. While it is likely that the Democrats will have the majority in the new House after this cycle, it is not expected that they will reclaim the majority of State delegations that the Republicans now control. Therefore, a tie in the Electoral College will likely result in the contingent election of Trump by the House of Representatives.

In the Senate, however, votes are cast individually, but it is expected that the Republicans will retake the majority in this chamber, likely resulting in the contingent election of Vance as Vice President. There is, however, the possibility that the chamber will be split evenly. If it votes in a partisan manner, there is a possibility for Harris to cast a tie-breaking vote, though whether she can or not will likely have to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court (as the Constitution is not entirely clear on this point). If such happens, Walz may be elected and there will be a split administration - arguably for the first time since 1865, after President Abraham Lincoln (R) and Andrew Johnson (D) were elected on the bipartisan National Union ticket.

One thing to quickly note is that the 270 majority only applies if all the electors vote, but such majority can be less. There is a potential for litigation to cause such chaos in the voting process that an entire slate of a State's electors may not be properly recognized. For example, North Carolina's Secretary of State certifies the Democratic slate after Harris wins the popular vote, but the North Carolina State Legislature, in an emergency session, elects their own slate. In such case, it is possible that neither slate is recognized by the joint Congress. This causes the entire Electoral College to be reduced from 538 to 522, with the new majority needed to win being 262. 

This was the case during the Civil War, when the entire Confederate States - which were not recognized as a foreign nation by the United States - failed to submit electoral votes during the Presidential election of 1864. 

Whither Third Party Presidential Candidates?

This cycle may be one of the worst for third party Presidential candidates, due either to how fractured each of the parties are or their bases. For example, the far left vote may be split between Jill Stein (G) and Cornel West (I), though there is a possibility for Stein to match her previous records, due to a heightened interest in her campaign from the Arab American community (who are disenchanted with the Harris). 

The Constitution and Libertarian parties are fractured to the point that individual State parties are running their own Presidential tickets and some of their leadership are endorsing Trump, thus their totals will be significantly smaller than in the past. This is a significant blow to the Libertarians, which had not too long ago fielded a fairly good (by third party standards) ticket in 2016 which won 3% of the total popular vote (nearly 4.5 million votes) - the best showing since H. Ross Perot's historic runs during the 1990s. It is likely that their share of the vote will be on par with their averages during the 1990s and 2000s (less than 0.5%).

Congressional Prediction

My prediction is that the Democrats will retake control of the House of Representatives, though with a small majority as like last time. The Republicans will likely retake control of the Senate, but with a small majority as well - likely 51 to 49 (47 Democrats and 2 independents). This is because the GOP will pick up seats in Montana and West Virginia. There is a small, but real, possibility that it could be tied, if independent Dan Osborn wins in Nebraska and decides to caucus with the Democrats (or an upset occurs in either Florida or Texas, but this is unlikely).

Signs of Winning

This election is likely to be extremely class, with the potential of being the closest since 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes (R) beat Samuel J. Tilden (D) 185 to 184 in the Electoral College - and then only after months of chaotic and contentious proceedings. There are, however, some signs to look for in "guestimating" who will win this Tuesday, before the results are completely reported:

• Early reports so far indicate that turnout in early voting is historically high among women and registered Democrats, with the latter outperforming Republicans by large margins. This may mean nothing, as lately Republicans overwhelmingly vote on Election Day and will likely erase these margins. However, if reports on Election Day indicate that turnout among men and registered Republicans is at or below 2020 levels, then it is a good bet that Harris will pull off a solid victory.

• Exit polls used to be a good indicator of how well a candidate was doing, not only based on demographics, but on key issues cited by the interviewees. For example, I knew that Trump would have a good Election Night in 2016 when exit polls from earlier in the day showed that the biggest issue of concern for voters was "leadership" - one of the Republican Party's strongest issues.
  
  Exit polls do not reflect the opinions of early voters, so any results therefrom should be taken with a grain of salt. However, if they indicate that the economy, leadership, or immigration are the biggest issues, it can be expected that Trump will be doing well with Election Day voters. Alternatively, if the biggest issues are abortion, democracy, healthcare, or climate change, a Harris victory is likely, considering she is doing well among both early and Election Day voters.

One Last Plea

The most important thing on the line this election is not immigration, the economy, abortion, taxes, or climate change. It is the U.S. Constitution. Without it, no individual rights are guaranteed protection and the people will not be able to transition their government towards addressing the issues listed above in a free and rational manner. If the Constitution goes, slavery is assured (not that found in the cotton fields during the 1800s, but that found in the labor and concentration camps of the 1900s).

While most of Democrats policies are not aligned with Constitutional principles, they are not at war with it. Donald Trump and his Party are. The former has called for its termination and the evidence is overwhelming that, given the opportunity by the right number of sychophants and cowards, he would establish a fascist-adjacent dictatorship (in the form of Christian Nationalism) with himself as the supreme leader (or "Chosen One", as he liked to call himself).

If you, dear reader, care about your individual rights and care about the only political system which guarantees these rights (laissez-faire capitalism), vote for Harris and a Democratic Congress. The U.S. Constitution must be preserved, if it is to be re-embraced; it can survive four more years of Democratic leadership. Another rebuking defeat for the Republicans should send another (and hopefully decisive) signal that alt-right authoritarianism is a losing ideology. Perhaps it will be enough for them to consider alternatives (and maybe, just maybe, re-discover their classical liberal roots).