Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...

 President Joseph R. Biden (D) and the rest of the Democrats seemingly made the right call in replacing him as their Presidential Nominee with Vice President Kamala Harris (D). There is now a resurgence of energy and optimism on their part, profoundly amplified by generous and original donations, and reflected in improved poll numbers. When I wrote my last post about the State of the Race, the Democrats were at risk of inadvertently transforming safe states into battlegrounds (such as Minnesota and New Hampshire). Now mitigated, the risks are that the Republicans could lose most of the traditional swing states (including Florida, which was considered safe for them at the beginning of this election cycle). Gov. Tim Walz (DFP – MN), surprisingly, has turned into a good runningmate choice for the Harris campaign. His folksy persona has been warmly embraced by liberals and moderates alike, and progressives are very fond of his record. Likely developed by his experience as a high sc...

Events of the past month have turned the most boring Presidential race since 1956 into a historic one. Former President Donald J. Trump (R) was nearly assassinated and a major pressure campaign has been launched to convince President Joseph R. Biden (D), who gave the worst televised General Election Debate performance in history, to end his campaign in favor of a (hopefully) more electable replacement. Rumors are that President Biden, while recovering this weekend from Covid-19, is seriously contemplating ending his campaign. Time will tell the validity of such. Prior to these events, I believed that this election would be as close as in the year 2000, when Vice President Al Gore (D) beat Governor George W. Bush (R) in the popular vote by 0.5%, but lost the Electoral College 271 – 266 – 1. Biden was likely to win the popular vote again, but flipping a coin to guess who would win the Electoral College would have been appropriate, as everything would come down to turnout. The only diff...

This article is directed towards those who are already well aware of the dangers which former President Donald J. Trump (R) poses to the U.S. Constitution (calling for its termination ), to the Western world in general (encouraging Russia to invade it), and potentially to the existence of civilization (encouraging Russia to potentially go to war with nuclear powers, such as Great Britain and France) – yet who are also hesitant to “pull the lever” for President Joseph Biden (D) this coming November. The hesitation may stem from any number or combination of things. For some, it is ideological, as the American brand of liberalism becomes more adjacent with democratic socialism. For others, it is because some of the Biden Administration’s policy decisions have been disasters. For others, it is primitive tribalism, where members of the opposing tribe are mortal enemies and can be shown no quarter. For others, it is personal, with concerns about Biden himself – whether it be his age and h...

  Note: In October 2023, I moved from the United States of America to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. While I hope these articles universally promote the principles of liberty, the expectation is that the context will still be American-centric, though I will delve into European politics at times. Every five years, citizens of the European Union (“EU”) will vote for individuals to represent them in the EU parliament. The elections will take place from June 6 – 9, 2024 and over seven hundred representatives (“Members of the EU Parliament” or “MEPs”) will be elected from twenty-seven countries. While I am not an EU citizen and cannot vote in such elections, they are still important to me because my new home, Luxembourg, is one of those countries and, as such, the policies and laws adopted by the EU have a direct impact upon my individual rights. For the protection of such rights, I will be supporting the Luxembourg Demokratesch Partei (“DP”) and its slate of candidates, for the ...

  While confirmation alludes me, I recollect from memory reading a transcript of an interview involving Harry Browne, the Libertarian Party’s Year 2000 U.S. Presidential Nominee. When asked about the Middle East, Mr. Browne made a poignant observation, which can be summarized as follows: “There will never be peace in the Middle East until all sides understand and value the concept of the separation between church and state.” This observation goes to the root cause of perpetual violence within this region of the world. It is also the root cause for the near perpetual cycle of violence which bathed Europe in blood during the Dark Ages. Religions, by their nature, reject reason in favor of faith. The degrees to which they do this vary among religions, but ultimately faith always triumphs over reason. How faith is validated also varies per religion, but fundamentally it is based on the subjective premise of feelings, which conveniently cannot be questioned or repudiated by any fa...

 I will begin by quoting from a person who cannot be mistaken as a 2 nd Amendment-hating, pinko- communist by the conservative movement: Ayn Rand. After a lecture she gave at the Ford Hall Forum in 1971, she engaged in a “Question and Answer” period in which she was asked about gun control, to which she gave the following response:  “I do not know enough about it to have an opinion, except to say that it’s not of primary importance. Forbidding guns or registering them is not going to stop criminals from having them; nor is it a great threat to the private, noncriminal citizen if he has to register the fact that he has a gun. It’s not an important issue, unless you’re ready to begin a private uprising right now, which isn’t very practical.”  After another lecture at the Forum in 1973, she was again asked about gun control and provided the following response:   “It’s a complex, technical issue in the philosophy of law. Handguns are instruments for killing peop...