Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

Why did Vice President Kamala Harris (D) lose? Why did the Democrats as a whole lose the Senate and (barely) fail to reclaim the House of Representatives? There has been much “hand wringing” over these questions, as political scientists and professionals in adjacent professions dissect the election results and critique various tactical and strategic decisions by the Democrats, such as whether or not Biden should have dropped out (and whether or not such action was taken too late), whether Harris should have moved to the left instead of towards the center, whether the Democrats’ GOTV efforts were too old-fashioned, etc. More important than addressing why the Democrats lost is why the Republicans won with a standard-bearer who is a convicted felon, was twice impeached as President, has undeniable authoritarian tendencies, is a pathological liar, and a sexual predator. Within this context, it is also important to answer why such a person actually outperformed down-ballot Republican...

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday: The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September , with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change: While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead.  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harr...

 While the beginning paragraphs of the U.S. Declaration of Independence are the most quoted, it is often overlooked that our Founding Father’s listed 27 grievances against Great Britain’s King George III and outlined their reasons for declaring independence from the British Crown. Here is how these grievances stack against former President Donald J. Trump (R): He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. While “Governors” in the Declaration’s context is in reference to King George’s ministers, it can also be applicable to the Governors of the United States during both the COVID-19 Pandemic and other natural disaster situations, when President Trump pressed the issue of withholding aid to “blue” States and areas, due to the lack of popular support for him in such. Though not the same concretely, this gri...

To my recollection, there has not been a time when the Electoral College has been so severely under attack by Democrats (whose only Presidential election losses this millennium, save one, were when they lost the electoral vote, despite winning the popular vote) and so vigorously defended by Republicans for all the wrong reasons (solely that it gives them a chance to win, despite clearly being less popular than the Democrats). More disheartening is the fact that most people do not understand the rationale for the Electoral College. To most, it is an anachronistic mechanism, developed solely as a utilitarian function for practically conducting a nationwide election in the 18 th Century. To others, it was a means of exploitation by wealthy landowners, ensuring that they would always control the levers of power (a ridiculous notion, considering such landowners could have easily established a more robust aristocratic system, modeled after Great Britain after the Revolutionary War, with t...

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...

 President Joseph R. Biden (D) and the rest of the Democrats seemingly made the right call in replacing him as their Presidential Nominee with Vice President Kamala Harris (D). There is now a resurgence of energy and optimism on their part, profoundly amplified by generous and original donations, and reflected in improved poll numbers. When I wrote my last post about the State of the Race, the Democrats were at risk of inadvertently transforming safe states into battlegrounds (such as Minnesota and New Hampshire). Now mitigated, the risks are that the Republicans could lose most of the traditional swing states (including Florida, which was considered safe for them at the beginning of this election cycle). Gov. Tim Walz (DFP – MN), surprisingly, has turned into a good runningmate choice for the Harris campaign. His folksy persona has been warmly embraced by liberals and moderates alike, and progressives are very fond of his record. Likely developed by his experience as a high sc...

Events of the past month have turned the most boring Presidential race since 1956 into a historic one. Former President Donald J. Trump (R) was nearly assassinated and a major pressure campaign has been launched to convince President Joseph R. Biden (D), who gave the worst televised General Election Debate performance in history, to end his campaign in favor of a (hopefully) more electable replacement. Rumors are that President Biden, while recovering this weekend from Covid-19, is seriously contemplating ending his campaign. Time will tell the validity of such. Prior to these events, I believed that this election would be as close as in the year 2000, when Vice President Al Gore (D) beat Governor George W. Bush (R) in the popular vote by 0.5%, but lost the Electoral College 271 – 266 – 1. Biden was likely to win the popular vote again, but flipping a coin to guess who would win the Electoral College would have been appropriate, as everything would come down to turnout. The only diff...

This article is directed towards those who are already well aware of the dangers which former President Donald J. Trump (R) poses to the U.S. Constitution (calling for its termination ), to the Western world in general (encouraging Russia to invade it), and potentially to the existence of civilization (encouraging Russia to potentially go to war with nuclear powers, such as Great Britain and France) – yet who are also hesitant to “pull the lever” for President Joseph Biden (D) this coming November. The hesitation may stem from any number or combination of things. For some, it is ideological, as the American brand of liberalism becomes more adjacent with democratic socialism. For others, it is because some of the Biden Administration’s policy decisions have been disasters. For others, it is primitive tribalism, where members of the opposing tribe are mortal enemies and can be shown no quarter. For others, it is personal, with concerns about Biden himself – whether it be his age and h...

  Note: In October 2023, I moved from the United States of America to the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. While I hope these articles universally promote the principles of liberty, the expectation is that the context will still be American-centric, though I will delve into European politics at times. Every five years, citizens of the European Union (“EU”) will vote for individuals to represent them in the EU parliament. The elections will take place from June 6 – 9, 2024 and over seven hundred representatives (“Members of the EU Parliament” or “MEPs”) will be elected from twenty-seven countries. While I am not an EU citizen and cannot vote in such elections, they are still important to me because my new home, Luxembourg, is one of those countries and, as such, the policies and laws adopted by the EU have a direct impact upon my individual rights. For the protection of such rights, I will be supporting the Luxembourg Demokratesch Partei (“DP”) and its slate of candidates, for the ...