Political Thoughts of Timothy A. Raty

Two family medical emergencies have occurred over the past two months which have rendered my ability to write anything (here on this blog on in my books) impossible. One of the emergencies, unfortunately, ended with the passing of a member of my family. The other is requiring my girlfriend to be bedridden for an extended period of time - which, in turn, requires me to be carrying more of the day-to-day work to take care of her. This being the case, I will not be posting anything new on this site for a while, at least not until April, 2025. Politically, this could not have happened at a worse time, but it is what it is. The Trump Administration is largely moving along the path I wrote about on how Trump could become a dictator, though there are some positive signs of pushback from the courts and from the Republicans in Congress . . . but the emphasis must be placed on the word "some".  The most critical sign to watch for at this point is whether SCOTUS pushes back on the Trump...

(Author’s Note: Due to health and a family emergency, I have been unable to complete as yet my planned series diagnosing the 2024 election. I still plan on finishing each part, but with political events unfolding as they are, this article is more timely.) Today, former President Donald J. Trump (R) will become current President in what will be the first coronation ceremony after the position was transformed by the U.S. Supreme Court into a pseudo-monarchy, by holding that a sitting President is practically inviolable. In 2022, Trump publicly called for the termination of the U.S. Constitution and he is well on his way in doing so. Months ago, I was asked by a relative as to how he could do this and provided her with the following short list of simultaneous political moves he would need to execute, in order to undermine the political and cultural underpinnings of American society to the point where termination would be feasible: ·        Packing the Ex...

Why did Vice President Kamala Harris (D) lose? Why did the Democrats as a whole lose the Senate and (barely) fail to reclaim the House of Representatives? There has been much “hand wringing” over these questions, as political scientists and professionals in adjacent professions dissect the election results and critique various tactical and strategic decisions by the Democrats, such as whether or not Biden should have dropped out (and whether or not such action was taken too late), whether Harris should have moved to the left instead of towards the center, whether the Democrats’ GOTV efforts were too old-fashioned, etc. More important than addressing why the Democrats lost is why the Republicans won with a standard-bearer who is a convicted felon, was twice impeached as President, has undeniable authoritarian tendencies, is a pathological liar, and a sexual predator. Within this context, it is also important to answer why such a person actually outperformed down-ballot Republican...

 Here is my final prediction for the Presidential election results this coming Tuesday: The shades of red and blue reflect the confidence in my prediction, with the lighter shades indicating that the opposite outcome in those state would not be of surprise to me. My thoughts on this prediction are the same as this past September , with the exception of Arizona, which I now believe will go for former President Donald Trump (R). There are several reasons for this change: While within the margins of error, Trump has led Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in most of the polls in Arizona this past month. While far from being scientific, it is my experience that this is indicative of such candidate having an actual lead.  Of course, the remaining undecided voters could break heavily for Harris (a likely possibility) and Senatorial candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently beating Kari Lake (R) in the polls in their race. Both of these factors may be enough to indicate that Harr...

 While the beginning paragraphs of the U.S. Declaration of Independence are the most quoted, it is often overlooked that our Founding Father’s listed 27 grievances against Great Britain’s King George III and outlined their reasons for declaring independence from the British Crown. Here is how these grievances stack against former President Donald J. Trump (R): He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. While “Governors” in the Declaration’s context is in reference to King George’s ministers, it can also be applicable to the Governors of the United States during both the COVID-19 Pandemic and other natural disaster situations, when President Trump pressed the issue of withholding aid to “blue” States and areas, due to the lack of popular support for him in such. Though not the same concretely, this gri...

To my recollection, there has not been a time when the Electoral College has been so severely under attack by Democrats (whose only Presidential election losses this millennium, save one, were when they lost the electoral vote, despite winning the popular vote) and so vigorously defended by Republicans for all the wrong reasons (solely that it gives them a chance to win, despite clearly being less popular than the Democrats). More disheartening is the fact that most people do not understand the rationale for the Electoral College. To most, it is an anachronistic mechanism, developed solely as a utilitarian function for practically conducting a nationwide election in the 18 th Century. To others, it was a means of exploitation by wealthy landowners, ensuring that they would always control the levers of power (a ridiculous notion, considering such landowners could have easily established a more robust aristocratic system, modeled after Great Britain after the Revolutionary War, with t...

 Here is my prediction: Those wishing to see a more detailed breakdown ( e.g. , predicted percentage wins per state) can also visit my prediction page on Dave Leip's Historical Election Atlas website (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2024/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1952).  Since 1992, the Republican Presidential Nominee has not won more than the 48% range of the vote (except in 2004). Since 1996, the Democratic Nominee has not won less than the 48% range of the vote. Thus, this prediction is based on the assumption that Trump will not win more than in the 48% range and Harris will win anywhere between 48 - 51%, depending on turnout and how well the third-party candidates do. My best guess at this point is that Harris will win around 50% while Trump wins close to 48%. When comparing 2016 against 2020, the percentages won by each party's nominee marginally changed in most states. I expect this will be the same in 2024 and very few states will flip. The most likel...